This card is unique, as it is the rookie card of one of the NHL’s most promising players. What’s more, it is extremely rare, since only one Outburst Gold exists in the world. What price will this card sell for? At the time of writing, the bidding stands at US$222,000.
I have always found that there are many parallels between the hockey card market and the stock market. Of course, I’m not referring to the process of assessing a card’s value, since unlike a stock, there are no cash flows or earnings with which to determine its worth. Hockey cards are valued primarily on the basis of their rarity, their history, and supply and demand, much like wine, art, stamps, and coins. Rather, I’m talking about similarities on a psychological level.
Stock market investors and collectors often tend to be affected by recency bias. This cognitive bias leads investors to place disproportionate weight on the most recent events, assuming that current conditions will continue into the future.
Cole Caufield’s performance during his most recent season is a perfect example. In January 2026, a Cole Caufield base rookie card in perfect condition was trading at nearly CAN$250. In March, his goal production picked up, and many fans were discussing the possibility of him reaching the exciting 50-goal plateau. The ensuing excitement propelled the card’s value to nearly CAN$600 in April. Following his more disappointing playoff performances, it now trades at around CAN$350.
When a player is producing at full speed, it’s easy to extrapolate that performance into the future. The same principle applies when a player is struggling—we get the impression that he will never turn things around. It’s the same principle in the stock market.
Take Netflix, for example. In the aftermath of the pandemic, the stock rose sharply as subscriber numbers, revenues, and earnings were all growing rapidly, driven by a favourable social context. Nothing seemed capable of stopping it.
In 2022, growth slowed and the company even began losing subscribers. The prevailing sentiment toward Netflix was that competition had become too fierce, with the Amazon Primes, Peacocks, and Disneys of this world. The perception was that the recent performance was only the beginning of a more difficult period for Netflix. As a result, the stock fell from nearly $70 per share in November 2021 to around $17 in May 2022. Netflix was, quite simply, “finished”!
Fast-forward to 2025, and the situation was completely reversed. Netflix was dominating its peers, while Disney had never managed to live up to its potential. What’s more, the strategies adopted by management had proven highly beneficial. Netflix’s growth had resumed, and investors had nothing but praise for the company. Investors expected this growth to continue. The stock reached a high of $130 per share in June 2025. Netflix was now dominant.
I invite you to review all the stocks in your portfolio and ask yourself whether recent performances, positive or negative, are influencing your judgment. Are you extrapolating recent events as a continuation of the future?
Of course, it’s always easy to look back after the fact and perform this kind of analysis. Today, Netflix is experiencing the opposite situation, as declining user engagement and growing competition from platforms like YouTube and TikTok are on everyone’s lips. Are investors extrapolating recent events correctly or incorrectly? That’s a rather complex question to answer.
Nevertheless, as with Caufield and Netflix, it is generally unwise to get carried away by recent performances. In the stock market, it is preferable to evaluate a company based on its long-term potential, as discussed in my blog last week.
In closing, let’s hope that the buyer of this coveted Outburst Gold can look beyond Celebrini’s performance last season and avoid the recency bias trap! All joking aside, this is a thrilling time for hockey card collectors. Without claiming to be a card valuation expert, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it approach the million-dollar mark by the end of the auction!
Jean-Philippe Legault, CFA
Senior Portfolio Manager at COTE 100
_______
This article is also published on 
(in French)
